Based on ten seasons of data across the English football pyramid, the research offers timely evidence as the game prepares for the introduction of an Independent Football Regulator. At its core is a simple but powerful message: football clubs that invest in their communities are better equipped to weather the financial shocks that come with relegation, poor form or ownership change.

Breaking the “success equals stability” myth

Titled “A 10-Year Longitudinal Study: On-Pitch Success and Merchandising Income Across the English Football Pyramid”, the research analysed merchandising income across ten clubs, including Liverpool, Aston Villa, Brentford, Tranmere Rovers and Port Vale.

The findings are stark. While high-scoring seasons, promotions and European qualification often trigger sharp rises in shirt and merchandise sales, those gains are rarely sustained. Income rises quickly with success, and just as quickly falls away when results turn.

By contrast, clubs with deep-rooted local identity and strong fan engagement show far more stable commercial performance over time.

“Results matter but creating a sense of community and a feeling of belonging matter more when it comes to long-term financial security,” said Niall Couper, CEO of Fair Game.

Community as a stabiliser

The study highlights a familiar pattern in the lower leagues. Promotions bring a surge in sales, but demand quickly flattens during tougher seasons. Port Vale’s data reflects this volatility clearly, with success delivering short-term gains but little protection against downturns.

Tranmere Rovers, however, emerge as a compelling counterexample. While play-off runs and promotion pushes drove sales peaks, strong local identity helped sustain higher levels of income between performance highs, smoothing out the boom-and-bust cycle.

In an interview with Global Sustainable Sport, Couper described the distinction as one between short-termism and long-term resilience.

“If you put all your money into success on the pitch, you’ll get revenue back, but only while that success lasts,” he explained. “If that revenue dries up, clubs can fall dramatically. Investment in community engagement is slower and steadier, but it reduces risk and builds longevity”.

The research also revealed an unexpected insight: goals scored, rather than league position, are the strongest short-term driver of merchandise sales, reinforcing how fragile performance-led income streams can be.

Rethinking value in football

For Couper, the findings underline a deeper structural problem in the game: football continues to undervalue the social and community impact it creates.

“Football clubs are more than businesses,” he said. “They are social institutions, anchors of identity and powerful community engines. Yet the current system rewards wealth over wisdom and short-term gambling over long-term stewardship”.

This perspective aligns closely with growing calls across sport to better measure and communicate social value, from participation and health outcomes to inclusion, local pride and fan engagement. These intangible assets, the study suggests, are not just socially valuable but financially protective.

A moment for regulation

The publication of the report coincides with a pivotal moment for English football, as the proposed Independent Football Regulator prepares to take shape.

Couper believes regulation must go beyond cost controls and solvency tests to actively incentivise long-term thinking.

“If the regulator’s remit is financial sustainability, it also needs to look at how the system rewards clubs that invest in community and fans,” he said. “That’s how you flatten the boom-and-bust curve. Without that cultural shift, clubs will remain trapped in short-term decision-making”.

Fair Game has positioned the study as evidence that community identity itself should be recognised as a form of financial sustainability, one that protects clubs not through wealth, but through connection.

The long game

Ultimately, The Community Goal, reframes the sustainability debate in football. Success will always matter, but the data shows it cannot be the only strategy.

For clubs, regulators and fans alike, the message is clear: investing in identity, inclusion and local connection is not a moral add-on to football’s business model, it is a core pillar of long-term survival.

As Couper puts it, the aim is simple: a game where supporters can be confident that “the team they love will be there for generations to come”.